Will he be from the United States? How about from Latin America? Will the Catholic Church look afar, perhaps the Philippines, or stay close to home?
This conclave marks the first time in history in which fewer than half of the cardinals voting to elect a new pope will be European, and church watchers have wondered whether the nationality or ethnicity of the candidates will play a role — especially as the church grows in the global south.
Northeastern University religion and politics expert William Miles says that the politics of nationality is less important, however, than the “theopolitics” of a polarized church in selecting the next pope.
“I think the nationality card is being overplayed,” says Miles, a professor of political science who teaches the Religion and Politics class at Northeastern. “More important than the nationality or the ethnicity of the pope this time around is going to be his stance on the issues that are polarizing the Catholic world.”
A conclave to select the next pope begins Wednesday in Vatican City.
The next pope will be elected by 135 cardinals whose sequestration during the conclave adds to the secrecy and mystery of the election process. A candidate must win a two-thirds majority to become pope.
Miles says he is “not making any bets” on who the new pope will be.
But he predicts that the conclave will be “much more political or ‘theopolitical’” — which he defines as the way that faith is transformed into positions on issues that galvanize contemporary society — than in the past few papal elections.“The Catholic Church is no less immune to broader politics than any other institution is,” Miles says. “We are living — all throughout the world we are living — in a highly polarized and polarizing world and even the pope and even papal candidates, well, they’re human beings.”
Miles says issues likely to divide the conclave include candidates’ stances on homosexuality and gay congregants, whether to allow pro-choice politicians to receive communion, and the role of women in the church.
The diversity of the Catholic Church is also not just reflected in the cardinals in the conclave, but in issues facing different Catholic communities.
“The Roman Catholic Church is not the only Catholic Church,” Miles adds.
Miles says that in Africa, there are multiple instances in which Catholic clergy have not only married, but also practiced polygamy. There is also a divide in the church over the incorporation of elements of other religions, rituals or cultures into church practice — something that is especially common in Latin America.
And the late Pope Francis “used a very fine knife quite frequently to decide where to draw the line,” Miles says, often to the dismay of many traditionalists in the church.
“It’s never easy to draw the line, and line-drawing on specific issues is very delicate, very fine, very political, and very theological,” Miles says. “We’re going to see that lines will be drawn in different places, regardless of who becomes the new pope.”