Novice wine reviewers are confident about their critiques. Until they are not
The U-shaped confidence curve every marketer should understand
Novice wine reviewers tend to be a confident lot, sure of the notes they detect in their newly purchased cabernet or chianti.
Over time, with more experience, that certainty tends to flag and reviewers start to use more circumspect language, says Matt Rocklage, assistant professor of marketing at Northeastern University.
“They’ll say, ‘I think I taste these things,’” he says, adding that confidence is regained as wine reviewers continue to track their tastings.
Novice wine reviewers express confidence when they begin but become uncertain with experience before regaining confidence, according to research by Rocklage.
He calls this curve a U-shaped confidence trajectory, and says he and fellow researchers observed the same effect among consumers of beer and cosmetics in a study they conducted of nearly 3.7 million product reviews.
The research has implications for companies and marketers seeking guidance on retaining customers and launching new products, he says.
“That dip in confidence leads people to switch. They’re less likely to be loyal, more likely to try something else,” Rocklage says.
For the study, which appears online in the Journal of Marketing Research, Rocklage and colleagues analyzed years of product reviews from approximately 30,000 wine drinkers, 50,000 beer drinkers, and 12,000 users of Sephora cosmetics.
For instance, they looked at wine reviews from CellarTracker.com from its creation in 2003 to 2012.
“We look at people’s online reviews and follow them through each tasting note that they post online,” Rocklage says. “We look at their language as they gain experience and measure confidence via their language.”
As people gain more experiences, they tend to waiver in their assertions.
“Whether it be wine or beer or cosmetics, they start to realize, ‘This is more complex, more nuanced than I thought. There are more things I need to know than I thought I needed to know,’” Rocklage says.
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“That’s when you see language start to dip in confidence. They’re starting to integrate words like, ‘I thought that,’ ‘I’m not sure,’ or ‘maybe,’ or ‘it could be,’’’ Rocklage says.
“Over time, they presumably start to fill in gaps in their knowledge. We see an upward curve in confidence. People start to use more definitive language like, ‘I definitely taste this’ or ‘I know this,’” he says.
Rocklage used machine learning and computational linguistics, including software he developed called Lexical Suite, to study shifts in confidence.
“How many experiences you have is a primary predictor” of where a consumer will be located on the U-shaped confidence trajectory, Rocklage says.
He says the study shows that initially enthusiastic customers will become less confident in the product.
“As a consequence of that, people are more likely to abandon a brand. They’re less loyal. (But) it has nothing to do with your brand or your product,” Rocklage says.
Companies and marketers can try several tactics to hold on to customers instead of waiting to see if they return, he says.
They can craft reviews to include questions about what gave consumers confidence in the product, which can remind them of why they trusted it in the first place, Rocklage says.
Or companies can offer a new product, he says. “They may be more likely to accept that offer and stick with you.”
