Northeastern experts in disaster response say inflated early figures are often the result of broken communication networks and overlapping reports.
The number of people reported missing after natural disasters often starts out shockingly high. But as communication systems are restored and records reconciled, those numbers typically drop dramatically.
In the Texas Hill Country, officials initially struggled to locate 160 people after July 4 weekend flooding along the Guadalupe River that killed 135. That number was recently reduced to three.
After the 2023 Hawaii wildfires that killed 115, more than 2,000 people were reported missing; eventually, that number fell to 66.
Northeastern University experts in disaster response say the inflated early figures are the result of broken communication networks and overlapping reports.
In the future, they say, satellite apps on cellphones and more streamlined reporting methods could help provide more accurate tallies in real time.
“When a natural disaster hits, the number of people reported missing often jumps dramatically at first,” says Stephen P. Wood, program director for Northeastern’s adult gerontology acute care nurse practitioner program.
“It’s usually due to the total chaos in those early hours and days. Communication systems like cell towers, power grids, even roads are often damaged or completely destroyed. That makes it incredibly hard for people to check in with loved ones or for emergency services to verify who is safe and where they are,” he says.
“But often those folks are alive and well, just unable to communicate,” says Wood, who has worked in the fields of emergency and extreme medicine.
“It all comes down to communication,” says Joshua Merson, program director of extreme medicine medical sciences at Northeastern.
When floods and hurricanes and other natural disasters shut down electricity and take out wires, people can’t charge their cellphones or get on the internet, he says.
Visitors to a disaster-struck area may have already left the region, but their extended family and friends may not be aware of that fact and report them missing, Merson says.
“When people can’t get in touch with friends or family, they naturally fear the worst and report them missing,” Wood says.
“Then there’s the issue of names,” he says. “People go by all sorts of names. Nicknames, married names, names they’re listed under in official records versus what friends and family call them.”
“That definitely adds to the confusion, especially in multicultural communities or among unhoused individuals who may not have up-to-date ID,” Wood says.
Different agencies and organizations have different reporting systems, so when people call multiple hospitals and shelters looking for a loved one, that person initially could be counted several times, Merson says.
“Can we streamline this? We’re trying,” Wood says.
He says more resilient communications infrastructure such as satellite-based SOS systems operated by Apple and Android are steps in the right direction, as are apps that can send “I’m safe” messages when cellular service is restored.
“Community reunification centers and central missing persons databases, like what the Red Cross often helps run, also help reduce duplication and error,” Wood says.
Searching for people who aren’t truly missing is “done out of care and urgency,” he says.
“When you look at the Texas floods and hear that only three people are still unaccounted for — it’s remarkable, considering the scale of the destruction,” Wood says. “But that’s no comfort to the families of those three. For them, the world is still upside down. And the search doesn’t feel over until everyone is found, or at least until there’s closure.”