In the Russia-Ukraine war, drones have been a game-changer, says Mai’a Cross, a professor of political science, international affairs and diplomacy at Northeastern University.
Drones have become a game-changer in the Russia-Ukraine War — so much so that they could potentially transform Ukraine into a defense powerhouse in Europe, according to one Northeastern University observer.
“It’s actually the case that Ukraine may not only have the wherewithal to potentially prevail in the war, but also be able to actually fund itself moving forward,” says Mai’a Cross, dean’s professor of political science, international affairs and diplomacy. “If it can scale what it is building such that it can develop an export industry and create a real market — a defense industry of its own — it might be able to fund its own efforts.”
Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks in recent months in an effort to check Russian aggression.
For its part, Russia has also intensified its drone production using Western electronics and Chinese parts. Drone attacks have been a regular part of its “punishment” strategy in Ukraine aimed at coercing Ukraine into a political outcome that favors Russia.
Russia has relied on the Iran-designed Shahed drone, a cheap drone armed with shrapnel and designed to target infrastructure with significant collateral damage to civilians.
Over the weekend, Russia unleashed its largest drone and missile bombardment yet on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. For Cross, the attack highlights the extent to which the war has shifted toward the use of drones.
“Even though Ukraine is experiencing a number of setbacks at the moment, the way in which it has made its overall military capability and production of drones so efficient is absolutely remarkable,” Cross says.
“What we’re seeing is the sheer ingenuity of those on the front lines in dealing with a weaponry shortfall, and innovating in a way that is really quite unprecedented,” Cross says.
Observers have noted how drone technology — such as stealth capability, “swarm” tactics and an ability to fly in lower altitudes — has upended conventional defensive measures. Drone innovation, spurred by ongoing conflicts, might have broader implications for defense spending across Europe and in the U.S., Cross says.
“It’s actually having an effect on how the U.S. is thinking about investments in the future,” Cross says. “Instead of these huge, expensive projects, like the F-35, you have these relatively cheap fleets of drones that are able to destroy a whole line of Russian tanks. That has changed how many countries think about the future of security.”
Ukrainian drones cost several thousand dollars to produce — and are manufactured in clandestine factories set up in office buildings, Cross says. Some of the more sophisticated models, such as the Buntar 3, can cost up to $100,000.
Where does Ukraine get the parts?
“Those drones that Ukraine has been able to innovate with in real time are largely made from commercially available parts from China that it is able to get either directly from China, or with tariffs and restrictions, through third countries where Chinese parts are routed through,” Cross says. “The Ukrainians are able to essentially take them apart and rebuild them for their purposes.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that China has stopped selling Ukraine fully assembled drones, such as the DJI Mavic.
“Chinese Mavic is open for Russians but is closed for Ukrainians,” Zelensky said, according to Bloomberg.
Russia, on the brink of a new offensive, “is doing pretty well in terms of drone warfare, in part because if it is able to capture a Ukrainian drone it can take it apart and figure out how to build its own version of it,” Cross says.
But, she says, Ukraine is “taking the lead” on drone innovation.
“At the beginning of the war, we were talking about whether the West will be able to give Ukraine enough weaponry, artillery and equipment to fight this war,” Cross says. “But that’s not the main question at this point. The main question is whether they’re going to have enough money to keep building and innovating on these incredibly effective drones.”
Russia, Cross says, has mirrored the Ukrainian strategy in the air, while maintaining a dominant position on the ground. But the shift to drone warfare changes the dynamic on the ground as well, as the Russian army tries to adapt to the threat these unmanned aerial vehicles pose to Russian assets, including tanks.
“It makes it quite a bit more dangerous for soldiers on the ground,” Cross says. “There’s almost this constant fear because you can’t rely on training and older strategies to hide from drones.”