Assistant professor Marianna Griffini, an expert in populist parties, says the court’s decision could be exploited by the far-right party as part of its 2027 presidential election strategy.
LONDON — Judges in France have barred far-right politician Marine Le Pen from standing in the next presidential election in 2027 after finding her guilty of embezzling European Union funds.
Le Pen, the figurehead of the anti-immigration party, National Rally, was given a four-year prison sentence, fined and told she would not be able to run for public office for five years for her part in her party’s misappropriation of 2.9 million euros ($3.1m) in European Parliament funding.
The 56-year-old has attacked the verdict, branding it a “political decision”, and has vowed to appeal.
The 2027 contest, which would have been Le Pen’s fourth run for the presidency, was seen as her best chance of succeeding. National Rally’s popularity has soared in recent years. It secured more than 10 million votes in both rounds of last year’s parliamentary elections and at one point looked to be on course to secure a majority.
Marianna Griffini, assistant professor in international relations and anthropology at Northeastern University in London, who researches far-right political parties, analyzes what the verdict means for National Rally and French politics.
Her comments have been edited for brevity and clarity.
It could go two opposite ways. On one hand, it could deter voters from casting their ballot for Le Pen’s party, in backlash to her being found guilty.
But on the other hand, we saw how Donald Trump’s legal troubles in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election didn’t stop him — and may have even helped rally the crowds around him. So I think that this could also play into National Rally’s hands.
It seems part of the narrative that they are trying to promote — this idea that the judiciary is the embodiment of the elites and is part of an establishment that is trying to stop National Rally from gaining power.
That is why the party has called this verdict out as partisan, as being purely an ideological decision. It may strengthen this portrayal of themselves as being victimized, which we have seen other right-wing figures use to great effect.
Another trait of the far-right is to have charismatic leaders that can attract voters. And that is done partly by having something to be in opposition to — when you have an enemy, that can consolidate a leader’s significance and make them appear more legitimate. In this case, the judiciary is being presented as the enemy to Le Pen’s bid for president.
Definitely, because the party has been associated with first her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who founded it as the National Front, and then her. It will be a blow to the party’s credibility and its position in French political history because it has been a mainstay in French politics.
But in practical terms, it could be the party uses this decision to make its attacks during an election campaign even sharper. They could use it to wage an animated battle against what it perceives as the establishment and trying to paint the judiciary as an expression of the left.
There is already a Plan B in the form of Jordan Bardella, the president of National Rally. He looks like her natural successor. Le Pen invested a lot in him during the parliamentary election campaign last year. He is still very young at only 29.
Right now, he is saying he wants to be loyal and is not looking to step into her shoes. But he has helped a lot in terms of changing the party’s image.
He became incredibly popular on TikTok during the campaign in the summer. You could see how he was appealing to the youth with his pop-style videos and his very polished and sleek image. And he has this working-class backstory, having been raised by immigrant parents. He has that underdog origins story that Le Pen doesn’t have.